2007 UTHF Annual Conference Summary Report: Trends of the Wireless World
Alan J Weissberger
I. Executive Summary
With so much of the telecom spending and growth shifting from wire-line to wireless networks, the theme of this year’s annual conference was quite appropriate: the current status and future directions of the Wireless World. The focus was on the macro view, zoom-out picture of wireless applications, business models, markets and partnerships for successful integration of technologies. Leading industry experts from Microsoft, Nokia, Google and Sagacity Networks, as well as representatives from leading edge start-up companies provided their perspective on the wireless world. They spoke of the critical issues and important dynamics that are having a huge impact on company’s business models, mobile office workers, and consumers.
What was apparent from all the keynote presentations, break-out and panel sessions, was that there is a huge shift underway from standalone applications accessed from fixed locations to making all types of information (voice, video, Internet, games, GPS, etc) available to people on the move who have mobile devices (either all- in- one/ multifunctional gadgets or special purpose devices). The telecom industry is particularly threatened by this change, as traditional telco’s have now been reduced to commodity bandwidth providers. According to Microsoft, they must partner with web 2.0 software companies to survive. They should also consider providing outsourcing services, such as CRM, to small and medium businesses (SMBs).
II. Telco 2.0 in the Mobile Landscape, Sanjiv Parikh, Microsoft
Sanjiv heads up Microsoft’s Emerging Business Team, which attempts to drive Microsoft’s interaction with VCs and start-up companies. Sanjiv stated that Microsoft “delivers integrated, adaptable, comprehensive solutions based on innovative software, that helps service providers (i.e. telcos) develop and deploy revenue generating services.” Well, that is quite a mouthful, but there is actually a credible vision behind this objective- Telco 2.0. According to Microsoft, “Telco 2.0 is defined as the convergence of Carrier’s foundation/network services integrated with Web 2.0 type services by 3rd parties.”
Simply put, Telco 2.0 is the marriage of traditional telco backend/ OSS/BSS services (e.g. billing, customer care, CRM) and location based services, with innovative applications, which may include user- generated videos and other content. Referred to by Sanjay as being created by “managed network mash-ups,” Telco 2.0 applications/ services might include: mapping augmented with user generated content, merging of disparate data bases and making results available to mobile subscribers in a meaningful way (e.g. farmers in India checking current commodity price quotes on their mobile phones), advertising based video/ music/ audio content, local search.
Microsoft believes that Telco 2.0 is a potential $800B market (when?) with SMBs being a prime potential customer. They think that there is a propensity for smaller companies (<100 employees) to outsource communications and IT services. As telcos are a trusted source, they are likely to be considered to provide outsourcing services like mobile VoIP combined with CRM, hosted network based applications, IT support, transaction based processing, mobile video broadcasting and others.
Sanjiv stated that disruptive (wireless) technologies and new (advertising based) business models were transforming the telecom industry. “Service Providers must make the transition to Telco 2.0 to survive,” he said. And we don’t necessarily disagree. Partnerships between web and communications companies will be key to making Telco 2.0 a reality. To this end, Microsoft is creating a Service Delivery Platform to enable the Telco 2.0 model and for customers to take advantage of 3rd party provided services.
Sanjiv gave examples of several start-up companies (e.g. Santa Clara based Divitas with a Fixed Mobile Convergence product) that are working with Microsoft to realize the Telco 2.0 vision. The challenge is for those start-up companies to partner with telcos to make the mash-up services available to users in a convenient manner. From our personal experience, this will be a very difficult undertaking, as traditional telcos are very resistant to disruption and change.
Sanjiv concluded by saying that, “Microsoft is totally committed to be a strategic partner for Service Provider customers in this new world- for delivery of Web 2.0 services over telco networks.” Bravo!
III. Mobile Web and Converged Devices, Arthur Lin, Nokia
Note: This author knows Arthur from the early 1990s when he worked at Pac Bell and Cisco, where he was a very knowledgeable and well respected expert on ATM technology. So we paid very careful attention to what he said about the wireless world!
Main themes:
Media (especially video and music) has gone to the Internet and will continue to be accessed by mobile subscribers, providing an “on-line life on the move.”
Mobile devices are evolving over the next few years so that they will become “Multimedia Computers” and will be people’s Internet devices of choice. Mobile devices will connect everyone to everything. They will enable people to take all their applications with them when they are on the move. Worldwide, 4B out of 6B people will have mobile devices in 2010. Nokia is selling 1M new mobile devices each day.
The mobile device has become the fourth screen (movie, TV, PC and now the cell phone). People are using mobile devices for multiple experiences. A 2006 study of Nokia S60 device use found these % of people using the following features: -Camera 76% , -Music 64%, -Games 54%, -Browse Internet 48%, -Search and Navigation 51%, -Want to use maps 31%, -Want to search on mobile devices (many).
Nokia uses the Safari for a mobile Internet browser. They shipped over 20M last year, will ship over 100M next year, and by 2010 they predict there will be 200M Nokia browsers on mobile devices.
The mobile devices are providing smart connectivity, with eight radios now in many mobiles. This provides users with ability to connect to multiple wireless networks, e.g. GSM cellular, EDGE, HSPDA, WiFi, Bluetooth, FM radio, GPS, WiMAX (?), DVB, WCDMA, etc.
Other key points:
- Openness is a critical requirement for convergence: it is what fuels innovation. Open innovation with business partners and communities is happening now.
- Internet is transforming mobility and vice-versa, e.g. community and social networking
- Both device convergence and Internet convergence are happening. For example, you can now download your content via Nokia Content Discoverer. With 8G bytes of internal storage there are mobile devices that can be web servers, using Apache open source code.
- Mobility will take the Internet to new places and create a personal Internet experience with Web 2.0 like content. Nokia recently bought Navteq- an Internet map company- for $8.1B. It will soon be able to provide global search and local find capability to mobile users. As a result, you will be able to discover your favorite podcast and be connected on the move to social networking sites like My Space, Flickr, VOX and You Tube.
- New application/service access/UI functionality. Nokia has launched an ad service for mobile users (www.adservice.nokia.com). This will transform the way business and consumers use the web.
- Companies will interact, collaborate and develop with their customers, partners and suppliers in completely new ways. For example, companies and consumers are now interacting on Second Life (virtual reality life on the web)
- Nokia will be providing Internet Services to customers under the OVI tagline (Finnish acronym meaning: Open door to the Internet). The Internet services Nokia will offer in selected markets will be found at www.ovi.com. These might include games, music, video clips and TV, contacts, maps, photos, etc.
- Smart technologies will adapt to the individual and his or her context.
- Converged devices provide wireless broadband access and become mainstream
- Universal open innovation proliferates
- Mobility transforms the Internet- broadband content goes Mobile via IP/Internet
- Content is King (long live the King!)
IV. Wireless Health Care Market, Sophia Liu, Sagacity Networks
Wireless communication has already been proven to increase work quality, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. The system eliminates manual data input and saves valuable resources. Compatible with the mobile attributes of present day healthcare, wireless data networking is also seen as a decision-support system, not simply a collector of data. The power of portable information appliances and wireless infrastructure plays an important role in the health care industry. From computers to cell phones to pagers to PDAs and tablet PCs, these tools can help the health care providers to maximize performance and capabilities, and help reach critical business and patient-care goals.
Due to the needs of an increasingly aging population, the medical devices, products and technologies are converging to revolutionize home- and self-care health systems. This makes it possible for people to play a greater role in maintaining their own health. The in- home health care systems are geared toward a prevention-oriented, consumer-driven health care model that includes innovations such as "smart devices" that can "think" for themselves, customized wearable devices, electronic patient records, and wireless Internet-linked systems--all expected to deliver convenient, user-friendly, intelligent health care in the home.
Wireless health care technologies are being used for many applications, including: mobile and home care, access to electronic health records, infusion therapy, telemetry/ monitoring, RFID and real time location services (RTLS), work flow optimization, etc. The specific wireless technologies being used include: WiFi (most popular), VoIP/WiFi, BlueTooth, Zigbee, UWB, and Wireless Sensor networks (see comparison Table).
Real time location systems (RTLS) may be the fastest-growing RFID application most people have never heard of. The market for these systems, which use active RFID or WiFi-enabled tags to track the location of assets in real time, is expected to grow to $1.26 billion by 2011, according to Frost & Sullivan. Wireless technologies for RTLS technologies are often rated on criteria such as: Low Power, Range (coverage area), Price, Deployment Cost, Installed Base, Reliability/Redundancy, and Accuracy. WiFi enabled Tablet PCs are used to collect and transmit clinical data about patient health.
Sagacity Network’s target applications - are RTLS and Asset Tracking. These are optimal for active RFID and have excellent growth prospects.
Reference Sites for further information:
http://sagacitynetworks.com/
http://www.continuaalliance.org
http://www.agingtech.org/index.aspx
http://tie.telemed.org/homehealth/
http://www.wirelesshealthcare.co.uk/
http://www.nhianet.org/infusion/
V. End-to-End IPTV in the Wireless World, Charlie Oppenheimer, CEO of Digital Fountain
Note: This title was a misnomer, as the video FEC-like software technology described had nothing to do with IPTV and could be deployed on wire-line as well as wireless networks. He did provide a good overview of mobile video entertainment.
Abstract: Mobile multimedia is one of the important growth opportunities for wireless operators worldwide. Consumers expect entertainment content wherever they are. Mobile operators need to determine which technologies can best enable a high-quality experience despite highly variable reception conditions. And at the same time, infrastructure requirements must be considered so that costs do not get out of control. Oppenheimer will review some of the alternative service models, technology choices and strategic tradeoffs.
Presentation: Charlie covered usage models, operator delivery choices and technologies for mobile video. He also elaborated on Digital Fountain’s software which mitigates the effects of packet loss and thereby provides improved video quality.
Broadcast model: Due to much lower costs and bandwidth requirements, the success of mobile video services will be dependent on being able to broadcast them (rather than use 1-to-1 or unicast video). A video stream uses 10 to 40 times the bandwidth of a voice call. With broadcasting, the bandwidth is fixed instead of being dependent on the number of users as in unicast video.
It is imperative for the video service provider to push as much video as possible to broadcast streaming with an idle time driven usage model. “Clip-casting,” refers to the broadcast of popular content as files, which are then received and stored on mobile devices for playback. Examples include: video highlight clips, songs, ads, etc. These are cached on user handsets, based on subscriptions. Clip-casting provides a broader service area coverage and better picture quality at a lower cost. KDD in Japan has deployed a combination of on-demand video streaming with broadcast video clips.
Usage Models: Mobile video is not like watching TV on a cell phone, according to Charlie. “That is a lousy business model, driven by technology, not usage.” There are two mobile video usage models:
1. Event Driven- occasional, view as it happens, e.g. breaking news stories
2. Idle Time Driven- watch while waiting for appointments, a restaurant or take-out meal, on a bus or train. All kinds of content can be provided when you view videos at your convenience. Watch different content at different times.
Live TV is necessary, but is an insufficient usage model. VoD (characterized by unscheduled use, view when you want when you want it), must also be taken into consideration.
Technology: Digital Fountain is a software company that leverages the use of FEC to create a process for delivering directories and video files, such that packet loss is much less of a factor in video quality. The technology dramatically increases range of streaming – a factor of 2 to 6 more coverage area is offered by their DF Raptor product line. Broadcast streaming is event driven. Quality is needed, but is difficult to achieve. The mobile user population has widely varying reception conditions- depending on location from a cell tower. If quality improves, viewing times will likely double, meaning more revenue for the video service provider.
In particular, DF Toughstream, may be able to eliminate block errors, tearing, jumps, video and audio loss. The following advantages are realized with DF Toughstream:
· Reliable broadcast transmission to any number of devices
· Eliminates need to receive specific packets, only sufficient quantity
· Extends effective broadcast coverage area
· Minimizes required broadcast duration for any file
· Allows for more content to be delivered with same bandwidth
Postscript: Alleviating video frame freezes and video buffer depletion
When watching streaming Internet video, did you ever notice the picture freezing for a while? That is due to network congestion. The playback buffer empties and there is no more video to display, hence the picture on the screen remains.
In Q1, Digital Fountain will launch DF Splash, a new instant-on TV-quality content deliver network (CDN). This is an infrastructure service meaning that it will be available for use by any content provider so that they can deliver the kind of experience that consumers expect. The benefit is that the user will get protection both from aggregate packet loss and also from loss from congestion that will tend to impact one stream more than another at any point in time.
VI. Trends in Mobile Advertising, Dilip Venkatachari, Google
Note: Dilip is Director, Product for Mobile Ads for Google and has lots of experience in Internet based advertising.
· An open mobile network provides for a more connected lifestyle
· Social networking seems to be a natural fit with mobile communications
· Video ((broadcast and clips), radio, Internet, newspapers will all be offered to mobile subscribers. Rich content will be available everywhere!
· More and more web applications will be available on cell phones/PDAs
· Top US mobile search categories are: maps/direction, weather, local info, news, entertainment, sports scores, financial info
· Mobile can integrate on-line and off-line content
· Sending a text message on a mobile phone, while watching TV will be common
· Search ads are a natural monetization option for providing free information
· Relevance and metrics are most important parameters for web- based ads. Metrics provides the ability to measure how effective ads are.
· Mobile web-based ads will be an extension of traditional web based ads and may be predicated on user location
· Advertisements are 1-to-1 and not shared amongst users
· Inspiration may come from where we least expect it
Panel Session
WAITING FOR THE NOTES!