Alan's Networking Analysis

Charles Babbage, ‘Irascible Genius’ and Computer Designer

2008-06-13T15:30:00Z

Doron Swade’s Computer History Museum Lecture on Charles Babbage and his Engines -May 10, 2008 at the Opening of the Babbage Exhibit at the Museum-

Alan J. Weissberger

IEEE Sr. Member and Program Chair IEEE ComSoc SCV

Disclaimer: All opinions, inferences and conclusions expressed in the article are that of noted Babbage authority Doron Swade, who presented the lecture. Dr. Swade later clarified various aspects of his talk as well as the construction of Babbage Difference Engine 2 at the London Museum of Science, where he was responsible for its construction and a documentary video.

Overview

Charles Babbage (1791-1871) was famous for inventing computing machines in the mid 19^th century, yet failing to build any of them. He was not the only one who didn’t succeed. Inspired by this high echelon member of British society, others tried and failed to build the computing machines Babbage conceived. This was in an age where various frivolous types of machines (many with no practical functions) were actually built. What was the significance of Babbage’s machines and why weren’t they completed in his lifetime?

Difference Engines 1 and 2[1] were strictly calculators that crunched numbers via repeated additions. The results were envisioned to improve the accuracy of many mathematical tables (e.g. maritime tables used by navigators at sea), which were calculated manually and therefore prone to human error. Babbage also saw his Difference Engines as a new technology of mathematics. This was a central interest for him. Human errors in mathematical calculations and tables achieved prominence both as the jumping off point and also as a device of persuasion when he was seeking financial support to build Difference Engine No. 1.

The second machine, known as an Analytical Engine, is much more than a calculator. It marks the progression from the mechanized arithmetic of calculation to general-purpose computation -with a program store separated from the processing unit. In light of subsequent developments in modern computing, the features incorporated in the Analytical Engine design show astonishing prescience (those features are detailed in the Analytical Engine section, which appears later in this article).

The first realized Babbage machine was Difference Engine No. 2. It was completed at the London Museum of Science in 2002, 153 years after Babbage designed it. Difference Engine No. 2 was faithfully built to the original drawings. It consists of 8,000 parts, weighs five tons, and measures 11 feet long. A duplicate of that machine was constructed in March 2008 (also in London) and was shipped to the Computer History Museum (CHM) in Mountain View, CA where it is on exhibit until May 2009. Sadly, the Analytical Engine was never completed.

To kick off the CHM Babbage exhibit on May 10^th, 2008 approximately 550 people attended a very well received afternoon lecture by Doron Swade, which is described below. The panel provides a simplified description of the exhibit.

Why Weren’t the Difference Engines Built?

The reason given in most popular accounts for the failure to build the Difference Engines was the limitation of the Victorian age tools (e.g. cylinder cocks and levers, picks for probes, etc) that were to be employed in the construction of the machines. But there is no historical evidence for this “technology limitation” theory, if this is taken to mean that he was unable to manufacture parts with sufficient precision for the calculating machines to work when assembled.

In fact, no one at that time had warned that these calculating machines could not be built. Many other machines- some of them useless- were in fact built using those same Victorian era mechanical parts and tools. Instead, there were a myriad other factors contributing to the failure to physically realize the Difference Engines. These included: an argument with his lead engineer over worker compensation, run-away costs, muddled financial arrangements, wrangling with a changing British government for funding, and a resulting discontinuity of negotiations over funding and construction.

Perhaps, Babbage’s personality had more to do with the failure to complete the Difference Engines then the underlying technology of the time. Known by his first biographer as the “irascible genius,” Babbage had lots of pride and hubris. He behaved as though being right entitled him to be rude. His quarrels with the British government and with chief engineer Joseph Clement might have doomed the project from being completed. When Clement resigned in March 1833, the practical construction of Difference Engine No. 1 stopped –11 years after it was conceived. Negotiations with the British government continued, but funding was finally axed in 1842. Difference Engine No. 2 was conceived and designed between 1846 and 1849 – long after the design of the (never completed) Analytical Engine.

Regrettably, none of these three machines were built in their entirety in Babbage’s lifetime. Only decades later did we recognize the potential and power of the underlying machine architectures, which were independently “re-discovered” by later day computer pioneers.

Fundamental Concepts and Features of the Difference Engines

Babbage was first motivated by an urge to create more accurate mathematical tables. Some argued that absolutely correct maritime tables were needed to improve ship safety and result in fewer shipwrecks. Babbage wrote that machines could more accurately do the low level calculations needed to produce correct tables.

Difference Engine No. 1. was based on the method of finite differences. This technique was well known at the time and used by humans in the calculation of mathematical tables. The basic concept was for the machine to use repeated additions to perform mathematical calculations that would effectively replace multiplication and division that had been done by hand. For example, finding the value of a polynomial requires evaluating each of its terms, which typically requires multiplication and/or division. But those operations could be accomplished by successive additions in the Difference Engine. Babbage envisioned the machine to be able to evaluate polynomials, find the n^th term of a series, and evaluate various types of mathematical expressions. So the application of the results had potentially wide use.

Babbage designed Difference Engine No. 2 between 1846 and 1849. It was to be an improved version of the original Difference Engine No. 1 machine. This Engine calculates with numbers thirty-one digits long and can tabulate any polynomial up to the seventh order. The design was elegantly simple and required three times fewer parts than Difference Engine No. 1 for similar computing power. No. 2 was planned to calculate and tabulate polynomials, printing results in hard copy and producing stereotype molds for plates intended for use in conventional printing presses.

There were many features of these two Difference Engines that can be explicitly recognized in modern computers. These include:

- parallel operation

- microprogramming

- pipelining

- digital control

- pulse shaping

- binary latching

- polling (of the binary latches)

- input/output

The Analytical Engine

Not at all discouraged by lack of success in building Difference Engine No. 1., Babbage talked with Ada Lovelace in 1834[2] about building a new type of machine that would be much more general purpose and programmable (via punched cards read by a mechanical card reader). The use of punched cards was an idea borrowed from the “Jacquard loom” used for weaving complex patterns in textiles.

Programmability, as well as other modern era computing principles, were embodied in the design for the Analytical Engine (see list below). One of the most visionary aspects of the Analytical Engine was an internal architecture that separated the “memory” from the “processor.” Using descriptions borrowed from the textile industry, Babbage called the memory “the store,” and the processor “the mill.” The separation of store and mill foreshadowed von Neumann’s stored program machine scheme, which is used in all computer architectures in the electronic era (including PCs, microprocessors and calculators). Yet, the Analytical Engine was not to be a true stored program machine. Its designs do not feature facilities for internally storing programs. Instead, instruction sequences as well as data were to be held externally on pasteboard punched cards and input from mechanical card readers.

Recognizable modern day computing features[3] found in the Analytical Engine included:

- programmable using punched cards

- internal architecture - separation of Store and Mill (Memory and CPU)

- serial fetch execute cycle

- parallel bus

- Input/Output (I/O)

- conditional branching (IF ... THEN ...)

- iterative looping

- microprogramming

- internal repertoire of automatic functions

- 50-100 digit precision

- parallel processing

- hardcopy and graphics output

Curiously, Babbage never made a serious attempt at building this machine. He did, however, advise the British government to switch funding from Difference Engine No. 1. to the more general purpose Analytical Engine. When the British government was reluctant to do so, Babbage looked for funding from abroad. It would not be forthcoming.

Panel 1. Complete Construction of Difference Engine No. 2.

It took the London Science museum 17 years to complete the construction of Difference Engine No. 2. Originally proposed in 1985 as a piece meal project, it was finally completed in 2002. The complete construction of Engine No. 2., using modern parts made to a 19th-century design confirms Babbage's reputation as a designer of formidable ingenuity. It also demonstrates that achievable precision was not a limiting factor in Babbage's failures, as many had later claimed. We can now say with some confidence that had Babbage built this Difference Engine, it would have worked.

The working Babbage Difference Engine No. 2. was completed in 2002 and is currently on public display at the London Science Museum. A duplicate Difference Engine No. 2 and Printer were completed in London in March 2008 for a private benefactor of the project, Nathan Myhrvold, formerly Chief Technology Officer and Group VP at Microsoft. Dr. Myhrvold has generously agreed to lend it to the Computer History Museum (CHM), Mountain View, California, where it will be displayed and demonstrated until May 2009.

Panel 2. Overview of the Difference Engine No. 2. Exhibit at the CHM[4]

As noted in this article, Difference Engine No. 2 was designed between 1846 and 1849, but was completed in 2002 at the London Museum of Science. The duplicate 2008 built machine, now on exhibit at the Computer History Museum, weighs 5 metric tons. It consists of 8,000 parts in bronze, cast iron and steel that are equally divided (approximately 4000 each) between the calculating section and the printing/stereotyping apparatus. The machine is shown in Figure 1.

Difference Engine No. 2 is manually operated. During scheduled CHM exhibit demonstrations, a museum docent turns the crank handle, which starts the Engine in motion. Continuous turning of the crank is required, which takes a considerable amount of effort and energy by the docent. One calculation result is produced every six seconds.

As the calculating section produces each new result, it is transferred via a system of racks and connecting shafts to the type wheels of the printer, where an inked record is made on a paper roll for checking purposes. From there, a second set of racks transfers the value to the stereotype punches which impress a record in soft material in the stereotype trays, forming a mold for the subsequent casting of a printing plate.

Note: The technical description of the Difference Engine calculation process is beyond the scope of this article. The interested reader is referred to reference [1] for the authoritative details.

The crank handle also drives the printer and stereotype apparatus, which is shown in Figure 2.

The stereotyping apparatus is quite ingenuous. It includes an elaborate programmable formatting mechanism to control the layout of the printed page. The “programming” is done by selection of cams to control various parameters: whether results are presented row-wise or column-wise, the number, or rows and columns per page, the width and spacing of rows and columns and the font size. After each result is punched in the mould, the tray is automatically repositioned under the punches by the power of falling weights to the correct position to receive the next result, without any impact on the speed of calculation. [These features would have been critical to producing stereotype moulds that would be used directly to produce parts of a final printing plate.]

The official CHM video, which forms part of the Babbage exhibit, includes a computer graphic simulation of the printer apparatus. That video was commissioned by Doron Swade while at the London Science Museum in 1990. Dr Swade was kind enough to give permission for a once-only use by CHM in this movie

http://youtube.com/watch?v=KBuJqUfO4-w

An earlier Difference Engine lecture by Doron Swade is available at:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=7K5p_tBcrd0

References:

I. Web links:

http://www.computerhistory.org/babbage/

http://www.computerhistory.org/babbage/charlesbabbage/

http://www.computerhistory.org/babbage/engines/

http://www.maxmon.com/1822ad.htm

http://babbagedifferenceengine.googlepages.com/

II. Articles and Books:

1. Swade, Doron, The construction of Charles Babbage's Difference Engine No. 2.; Annals of the History of Computing, IEEE Volume 27, Issue 3, July-Sept. 2005 Page(s): 70 - 88

2. Swade, Doron, The Cogwheel Brain: Charles Babbage and the Quest to Build the First Computer. London: Little, Brown, 2000.

3. Swade, Doron, The 'Unerring Certainty of Mechanical Agency': Machines and Table Making in the Nineteenth Century. The History of Mathematical Tables: From Sumer to Spreadsheets, Edited by Martin Campbell-Kelly, et al. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003. Page(s): 143-74.

4. Swade, Doron, Redeeming Charles Babbage's Mechanical Computer, Scientific American. February (1993): Page(s): 86-91.

5. Swade, Doron, It will not Slice a Pineapple-Charles Babbage and the first computer, Swade, D.; IEE Review Volume 37, Issue 6, 20 June 1991 Page(s): 217 - 220

6. Bromley, A.G., Charles Babbage's Analytical Engine 1838, Annals of the History of Computing, IEEE Volume 20, Issue 4, Oct.-Dec. 1998 Page(s): 29 - 45

7. Grattan-Guinness, Charles Babbage as an Algorithmic Thinker, I.; Annals of the History of

Computing, IEEE Volume 14, Issue 3, 1992 Page(s): Page(s): 34 – 48

Acknowledgements

The author thanks Tim Robinson, CHM Sr. Docent, for providing the text that accurately describes the stereotyping apparatus in the second Panel. We’d also like to thank Marcin Wichary for the two superb photos he took of the CHM Babbage exhibit which appear in this article.

Explanation of Footnotes

[1] Difference Engines Numbers 1 and 2 were not designed one after another. In particular, Difference Engine No. 2 was designed after the Analytical Engine. They are discussed together for logical grouping purposes, even though they were not designed in chronological order.

[2] “To Dream Tomorrow,” a documentary movie on Ada Lovelace, shown May 10, 2008 at the CHM, Mt View, CA

[3] Babbage did not use these terms, which had not yet been invented at the time.

[4] Reference [1] is a summary article with short overview panels containing technical descriptions no longer than a page each. The 'complete' (i.e. most comprehensive) technical description published to date (60,000 words long) is found in the following reference: Swade, Doron. Charles Babbage's Difference Engine No.2: Technical Description: Science Museum Papers in the History of Technology, 1996. Reference [3] describes how the results of the Babbage Engine calculations could be used to construct Mathematical Tables.

Telecom News Summary (sent to members of IEEE ComSoc-SCV Discussion List)

2008-05-26T15:40:00Z

This issue has lots of carrier related news. Our lead story is China’s announced restructuring of their telecom sector. Emerging market countries are also in the spotlight as they are where most network build-outs are taking place.

Please let me know what topics are of interest to you.

alan@viodi.com

I. Overseas (non-U.S.) Telecom News

China unveils long awaited telecommunications restructuring plan

China unveiled its plan for restructuring the telecommunications sector, ending a long entrenched separation of mobile and fixed line services. The move, in response to the rapid growth of mobile phone operations but relatively stagnant business of fixed line operators, will also reduce the number of major players in the sector from four to three. Two smaller operators will also disappear.

China said the plan is aimed at creating three competitors of roughly comparable strength, while cutting telecommunications costs, avoiding duplicate network construction and boosting phone penetration nationwide. The 3G licenses will be granted after the reorganization has been completed. The announcement ends a long wait for Chinese and international operators and telecoms equipment manufacturers, who have for years strained to decipher regulators’ intentions for a fast-growing market that now boasts over 900m subscribers.

Under the scheme, the two networks operated by number-two wireless telco China Unicom are to be divided, with its CDMA operations sold to leading fixed-line operator China Telecom and its GSM network to be merged with trailing fixed-line company China Netcom. Officials have sought to reduce the number of operators before the introduction of 3G to avoid unnecessary investment in new national networks.

The FT newspaper (LEX column) states: "The restructuring itself, designed to create a more level playing field, could be bad news for China Mobile."

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/05/24/afx5045567.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9c5a9cd6-2a82-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/89637268-28a4-11dd-96ce-000077b07658.html

Follow on story: China pushes home-grown telecom technology

China has ordered “strong support” for the development and use of domestic technology in its telecoms industry amid a restructuring of the country’s telephone operators and the approaching launch of third-generation wireless services.

The demand for greater favorable treatment for domestic products highlights China’s determination to leverage its status as one of the world’s most important telecoms markets and ensure it is at the forefront of technology development. It also has implications for international telecoms equipment vendors that face increasing competition both within China and overseas from Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE.

In a statement at the weekend, the government said its planned re-organization of telecom operators should be accompanied by a raft of measures to promote home-grown technology.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d35c676-2a82-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html

Intel invests in WiMax roll-out in Malaysia

Backgrounder: Intel has invested billions of dollars in 30 WiMax operators and infrastructure providers in the last few years, including $1bn of the $3.2bn that a consortium of companies is investing in a new venture in the US run by Sprint and Clearwire.

Intel will invest $16 million to help Malaysia's Green Packet Berhad develop the country's maiden nationwide high-speed WiMAX network, the chip maker announced. The company plans to launch its WiMAX broadband service in June.

This matches Intel’s business model, which Chairman Craig Barrett described as “built around internet and rich content”. Malaysia will be a “good test-bed” for WiMax because it combines emerging and sophisticated markets, and on account of the government’s “forward-looking and aggressive” attitude to the internet access, Mr Barrett said. “Rich content needs more processing power, so you need more connectivity and bandwidth to communicate back and forth,” he said. “It’s not that we’re tied to WiMax, it’s that we’re tied to continually increasing the bandwidth and connectivity.”

Mr Barrett acknowledged that, while WiMax will be relevant in mature markets for mobile connectivity, it is likely to be more successful in emerging markets that do not have widespread fixed line broadband infrastructure. (We have been saying this for some time).

Green Packet, listed on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange, plans to launch its WiMax network next month in Malaysia through its subsidiary Packet One. It has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the project and is aiming for its network to cover 25 per cent of Malaysia’s population by the end of the year. Three other Malaysian companies are due to follow within months.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/19/business/AS-TEC-Malaysia-Intel-WiMAX.php

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4063c8fa-262f-11dd-9c95-000077b07658.html

Bharti Airtel walks away from MTN- Reliance Group knocking on the door

Bharti Airtel, India’s largest mobile operator, has broken off talks with MTN, the South African telecoms group, dashing hopes for a deal that sought to forge one of the world’s biggest emerging market telecoms alliances.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2696cabc-29d1-11dd-b92c-000077b07658.html

Reliance Group, one of India’s largest telecom players, is speaking with MTN about a merger, but putting a deal together will not be easy. Reliance's market value of $27.5 billion is about $10 billion less than MTN's, and it has about 20 million fewer customers.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/25/technology/telecom.php

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e5d477c-2a70-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html

Vodafone in Mobile Internet Struggle

Vodafone is likely to undertake more acquisitions to beef up its Internet services for mobile phone customers, according to people familiar with the situation.

Though the scale of the initial purchases will probably be small, Arun Sarin, Vodafone chief executive, is hoping to calm fears that the world’s largest mobile operator could lose out in the scramble over the mobile internet. Vodafone this month made its maiden wireless internet deal by agreeing to pay £25m for Zyb, a Danish social networking company.

Its annual results will underline how the mobile Internet is starting to make a significant contribution to its revenue as the company joins a number of large groups that are fighting it out to establish leading positions in mobile services.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b32523b2-2a7a-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html

Invasion of Privacy? BT trials to track web surfers

BT will shortly begin trials of an advertising technology that could have profound implications for the Internet economy and online privacy. BT will use technology from Phorm, to track the web-surfing habits of its internet users to enable it to target advertising more tightly.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2399fa82-28ff-11dd-96ce-000077b07658.html

BCE buy-out deal appears to be collapsing- no white knight in sight

BCE deal is in trouble- it appears that only the Canadian government can save this huge buyout. Telus (the 2^nd largest Canadian telecom provider) will likely wait for the dust to settle in the drama of BCE and its $34.8-billion buyout before making a new bid.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080524.RTELUS24/TPStory/Business

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=af86485b-37d6-454d-a5fa-83cb763ab52d

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/money/story.html?id=8df8d848-e1b5-4d78-9fdb-4690ed384ac8

Cable & Wireless mulls spinoffs to realize value

Global telecom provider Cable & Wireless will weigh whether it should shed some of its core businesses this year to unlock the full value of the company, executives said Thursday, but they added the U.K.-based company has several other options including selling off parts of the business or aligning its groups to return capital to shareholders.

In its latest earnings report, the company said revenue was down, but earnings rose as part of C&W's strategy to focus on high-quality long-term contracts.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/cable--wireless-considers-demerger-options-832869.html

Alcatel-Lucent inks Vodafone service deal

Vodafone U.K. and Alcatel-Lucent have agreed to a five-year deal under which the equipment maker will oversee and improve a number of the cell phone provider's technical platforms, the companies announced. Alcatel-Lucent will work on Vodafone's Intelligent Network and Core Applications (INCA) platform and standardize other systems within the company.

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/31346.php

China Netcom subsidiary awards contract to Alcatel-Lucent

Alcatel-Lucent will supply the next-generation network to Beijing Netcom in the Chinese capital, the telecom-equipment company has announced, adding that the China Netcom subsidiary will offer video telephony.

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/05/22/afx5038275.html

Deutsche investigates spying allegations

René Obermann, Deutsche Telekom chief executive, admitted the company was investigating allegations that the German telecommunications group had illegally used client telephone data to spy on its own top managers and on journalists.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5312b576-2a83-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html

II. U.S. Telecom News

AT&T CFO: Business will lead economic rebound

AT&T’s CFO Rick Lindner told Reuters that he thinks the U.S. economy will begin to recover in the second half of the year, but the improvement will be fueled by the business sector and not by consumers. Citing mortgage issues and the high price of oil, Lindner reportedly said he expects it will take a bit longer for consumers to work through the economic downturn.

Despite reports of a rebound, Linder said AT&T still hasn’t seen any sign of slowdown in its wireless business.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/electionsNews/idUKN2231040420080523

AT&T: On target for completion of 3G cell network by June- HSUPA and HSDPA

AT&T says that it will complete deployment by next month of its high-speed uplink packet access technology, which provides upload speeds of 800 kbps and download speeds of 1.4 Mbps. The company said six markets still needed to be connected to the 3G mobile-wireless system.

AT&T will install the software upgrade in its final six markets next month, extending HSUPA to its entire 3G footprint of 275 markets. AT&T has been rolling out HSUPA quietly over the last year, simultaneously expanding its HSDPA footprint while upgrading previously launched markets with HSUPA. By year end, AT&T expects to have the bulk of its nationwide 3G network completed by year end, covering 350 markets.

The new uplink capacity will allow AT&T to launch peer-to-peer and real-time interactive services that require a hefty return channel. Like its CDMA counterpart, EV-DO Revision A, HSUPA adds both the upstream capacity and low latency necessary to support applications like VoIP, videoconferencing and multiplayer gaming. Sprint is using its Rev. A network to extend its Next Direct Connect service to its CDMA customers by turning the push-to-talk sessions into VoIP sessions. AT&T’s ambitions for HSUPA—at least for now—appear to be more modest. In its announcement, AT&T indicated it would initially position the service as a faster peer-to-peer and file-upload option for its laptop broadband users.

http://telephonyonline.com/wireless/news/att-nears-completion-0521/

Dan Hesse: Sprint in "third inning" of rebuild

Sprint Nextel CEO Dan Hesse says the company has made strides in overcoming its operational and financial problems, telling an interviewer that Sprint was "in the third inning" of its overhaul. One example of improvement he pointed to was making employees more personally responsible for how customers are treated. The jury is still out on those moves. Sprint lost 1.1 million subscribers in the first quarter and ranked last among the biggest wireless companies in a customer satisfaction survey.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/20/AR2008052001596.html

Level 3 back on track after provisioning stumble

The carrier’s carrier is working to regain its wholesale edge after overcoming a hang-up in provisioning that cut its sales last year. Reports from its top competitor, Cogent Communications, suggest that Level 3's efforts are resulting in lower prices. (Wholesale pricing for services to other carriers.)

“It sounds like provisioning is no longer an issue for [Level 3], so they’re trying to get back in the game and rev up the sales pipeline, and the easiest place to do it is in the wholesale market, where they’re well-known and respected,” said Donna Jaegers, an analyst with Janco Partners. “And Level 3’s never been shy about playing the price card.”

Level 3 is likely being most aggressive with wholesale pricing among customers that are on its network, since the relatively low cost to connect them means it can afford to drop prices. Where the carrier would need to buy a local loop from the incumbent carrier to connect, it is less likely to be willing to go as low.

http://telephonyonline.com/access/news/level-comes-back-0522/

Chambers: Collaborative tools key to Cisco future

Development of such Web 2.0 applications as TelePresence videoconferencing are critical to Cisco Systems' survival, CEO John Chambers said Tuesday as he described how collaborative efforts inside the company almost failed. Chambers said that Web 2.0 voice and video tools like unified-communications services were the most important elements of intra-company collaborative efforts.

Chambers' preferred methods of communicating, he said, are text messages and video. Beyond collaborating internally, Chambers said he's doing more virtual meetings. He already travels physically to many countries throughout the year, but with telepresence he said he will double the number of customers he speaks with while doing half his customary travel.

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2008/052108-chambers-web-2.html

Motorola Struggles to Stay Relevant

Motorola’s reversal of fortune has been striking. The Schaumburg, Ill., company shipped about 27 million handsets during the first quarter of 2008, putting its share of the global market below 10 percent — a plunge from its 22 percent market share in 2006, when its Razr flip phone was a top seller. Motorola also has something of an image problem with its customers, particularly wireless carriers like Verizon Wireless and AT&T that got burned when the company did not deliver promised phones on time.

“The question is, ‘What is the game plan?’ ” said Walter Piecyk, a managing director at Pali Research, an independent research firm in New York. “Motorola needs to decide what it wants to be. You can’t just keep saying, ‘I promise to come out with better phones.’ That is not enough these days.” Roger Entner, Sr. VP at IAG Research had this to say: “With Motorola, no one knows what is in the design pipeline. It’s like a black hole.”

“There is no shortage of smart people there,” said Jeffrey K. Belk, a former senior vice president for strategy at Qualcomm, who worked closely with Motorola executives. “What is changing is the environment around them.” Mr. Entner put it more bluntly: “That company suffers from a culture of failure.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/24/technology/24motorola.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=Motorola++&st=nyt&oref=slogin

Google Lobbies FCC to free up TV White Spaces for wireless Internet use

In DC, Google Co-Founder Larry Page expressed “concern” over a possible missed opportunity for the country to use unused TV airwaves for wireless Internet access. Called “white spaces,” the FCC has been testing the viability of using the unused portions of spectrum for wireless access. Page reportedly said white spaces represent a much better technology for blanketing the country with wireless Internet than Wi-Fi, as they have much longer range.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Google-Lobbies-White-Spaces.aspx

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6563360.html?industryid=48696

Google's "dark fiber" won't be used by Clearwire for WiMAX backhaul

Google said its $500 million backing of Clearwire's planned Mobile WiMAX network is not a sign that the carrier will use Google's dark -- or unused -- fiber to reduce the cost of connecting Clearwire's cell sites to the wired Internet. A Google spokesman said its funding was purely for investment reasons rather than for getting involved in its network infrastructure.

http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=154249

AT&T opens 17,000 hotspots to its 3G wireless subscribers

AT&T will allow its 3G data-service customers to access the Internet free via its Wi-Fi network at its 17,000 U.S. hotspots, the company announced Tuesday. It opened the offer to Laptop Connect subscribers, who pay at least $60 a month for data over its HSDPA and EDGE networks.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9948890-7.html

Verizon: Video Broadcast (not IPTV) integral part of FiOS

Verizon Communications is in no hurry to switch its FiOS service to an IP-based architecture because its offering is fully supported by the broadcast model. "It would have to be a situation where there's something we couldn't support on our broadcast wavelengths," said Vincent O'Byrne, director of access technologies at Verizon. "Also if we found ourselves moving more and more features to the 1490, that would be the biggest rationale, because as you go to the 1490, you're using bandwidth that you could use for other items."

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=154049

Municipalities face risk when taking own path to broadband

More than a dozen small cities and towns have decided to take on the broadband cause themselves by building fiber networks, although, according to this article, some municipalities fail to realize the expense related to essaying such a project alone. The efforts highlight a battle over Internet policy in the U.S. Once the undisputed leader in the technological revolution, the U.S. now lags a growing number of countries in the speed, cost and availability of high-speed Internet. While cable and telecom companies are spending billions to upgrade their service, they're focusing their efforts mostly on larger U.S. cities for now.

Smaller ones such as Chattanooga say they need to fill the vacuum themselves or risk falling further behind and losing highly-paid jobs. Chattanooga's city-owned electric utility began offering ultrafast Internet service to downtown business customers five years ago. Now it plans to roll out a fiber network to deliver TV, high-speed Internet and phone service to some 170,000 customers. The city has no choice but to foot the bill itself for a high-speed network -- expected to cost $230 million -- if it wants to remain competitive in today's global economy, says Harold DePriest, the utility's chief executive officer.

It's a risky bet. Some municipal Internet efforts, including wireless projects known as Wi-Fi, have failed in recent months. EarthLink Inc. confirmed last week it was pulling the plug on its wireless partnership with Philadelphia. A number of towns have abandoned a municipal fiber initiative in Utah, called Utopia, amid financial difficulties.

The latest efforts have aroused intense opposition from private-sector providers. Cable and telecom companies have successfully lobbied 15 state legislatures to pass laws preventing municipalities from entering the broadband business. Comcast Corp., Cox Communications Inc. and other cable and telecom providers have also filed lawsuits against existing projects, arguing they're an improper use of taxpayer money and amount to unfair competition. In Chattanooga, Comcast sued the city's utility late last month in Hamilton County Chancery Court.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121115846391602439.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Vermont to build wireless Internet network for rural areas

Under legislative mandate to bring high-speed Internet to rural sections of the state, the Vermont Telecommunications Authority plans to tap a $40 million bond issue to build hundreds of towers for wireless Web and cell-phone service. But some critics, such as state Rep. Jim Masland, say fiber optic would be a better choice.

http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080517/NEWS02/805170325/1003/NEWS02

Embarq Launches IP-MPLS Virtual Private Network (VPN) Service

EMBARQ (x-Sprint-Local) has announced the availability of its MPLS VPN, claiming it's what their business customers want from a network.

Along with enhancing network management with in-network routing, officials said, the service also boosts security and service quality for multimedia streaming applications like Voice over IP (VoIP) and video. EMBARQ's MPLS VPN supports multiple protocols and access options, and it also can include network management. Moreover, it can be used to deliver “any type of network traffic,” and the packages are scalable to “fit any customer’s needs.”

http://ipvpn.tmcnet.com/topics/ipvpn/articles/28943-embarq-intros-ip-based-virtual-private-network-service.htm

III. Miscellaneous News

Global Dreams for a Wireless Web

FON, a company based in Madrid, Spain, wants to unlock the potential power of the social Internet. FON’s gamble is that Internet users will share a portion of their wireless connection with strangers in exchange for access to wireless hotspots controlled by others.

The swaps, in theory, would allow “Foneros” to have ubiquitous, global wireless access while traveling for business or pleasure. But despite $55.2 million in backing from such corporate heavyweights as Google and BT, the former British Telecom, as well as newer enterprises like Skype and a handful of venture capital firms, FON and Mr. Varsavsky are still missing a crucial ingredient: scale.

At the moment, there are just 830,000 registered “Foneros” around the world, and only 340,000 active Wi-Fi hotspots run FON software. Because it’s built upon the concept of sharing WiFi access, FON works well only if there are “Foneros” everywhere.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/technology/25web.html

Femtocell standards pass key approval hurdle

Members of the Femto Forum have agreed on a body of standards covering how femtocells should interface with mobile core networks, fueling hopes that final standards can be worked out in a matter of months. The results are expected to allow any femtocell -- small wireless home base stations -- to work with any mobile network.

http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=154459

E-Access (Japan) founder predicts LTE will win the 4G race

Sachio Semmoto, founder of Japanese broadband Internet and wireless company eAccess Ltd., sees a bright future for Long Term Evolution, especially since large carriers, including Vodafone, Verizon Wireless, China Mobile and NTT DoCoMo, are embracing it.

http://in.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idINIndia-33690520080521

FCC 700 MHz Auction Postscript: Big loss for US Wireless Network Competition

2008-04-19T02:24:00Z

FCC 95 MHz safe harbor rule violated. What will they do?

To read this exclusive scoop, with info provided from a well placed anonymous source, go to:

http://viodi.com/2008/04/11/fcc-700-mhz-auction/

Public Safety a Big Loser with Failure of Muni Wireless Networks and the 700MHz D Block Auction

2008-03-30T00:00:00Z

Motivation for this post: I was interviewed for a McNeil-Lehrer Newshour article on the 700MHz auction, which was published yesterday on their home page.

I tried to emphasize that the failure of the D Block auction (to attract a minimum bid) was a disaster for public safety. Unfortunately, the writer did not include that info in the article. Here's the quote and url:

"No one knows what the other players are going to do, because this spectrum doesn't dictate what wireless technology you use," said Alan J. Weissberger, a Silicon Valley telecommunications consultant with DCT Advisors.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/science/jan-june08/spectrum_03-28.html

and an acknowledgement from my editor at Viodi View:

http://viodi.com/2008/03/28/weissberger/

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Public Safety left out in the cold

We have previously written about the Fading Hopes for Muni Wireless networks as well as the failure of the 700MHz D Block (public-private partnership) FCC auction. When you combine these two, one realizes that public safety networks have been left in a frozen state, with no opportunity to upgrade to a more efficient, interoperable network architecture.

To recap: Public safety organizations were a big loser in the FCC auction, as the minimum bid for the D block was not achieved. That combined with the failure of Muni Wireless networks to gain market traction nixes any upgrade plans for public safety wireless nets. Many failed muni WiFi networks, like Wireless Silicon Valley, were intended to provide interoperability amongst public safety organizations (police, fire, municipal govts, etc) which currently run their own private networks, often on different frequencies.

So the failure of the D block auction looms large for public safety organizations. Without public private partnerships for the D block or muni wireless networks serving them, public safety is left with many non- compatible, non- interconnected wireless networks.

Interoperability between public safety organizations are needed at times of regional disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina and the huge bridge collapse in Minnesota. There are many instances in which joining the disparate public safety networks could save lives of first responders.

We conclude that public safety networks will continue to be a hodge podge of proprietary and non-interconnected offerings unless a white knight appears that will re-initiate public private muni wireless networks. Could Google be that white knight? We don't think so.

Hope Fading for Muni Wireless Networks- Is WiMAX the answer?

2008-03-24T01:47:00Z

The March 22nd NY Times had a front page story describing the sorry state of Muni WiFi networks in the U.S. We long ago suspected that the business model was flawed, but we did not expect that the number of WiFi Access Points on light poles had to be so much larger then originally planned. What kind of network architects designed those networks?

To get the scoop visit:

http://viodi.com/2008/03/23/hope-fading-for-muni-wireless-networks-is-wimax-the-answer/

Has the 700 MHz Auction Been a Failure? Yes and No!

2008-03-16T01:01:00Z

http://viodi.com/2008/03/03/has-the-700-mhz-auction-been-a-failure/

What do you think?

alan@viodi.com

Are any telecom companies making money? We don't think so- do you disagree?

2008-02-29T06:23:00Z

Huge loss by SPRINT caps plethara of disappointing telecom news

We do not think SPRINT has the financial resources to complete their WiMAX buildout plans. Instead, the WiMAX unit will likely be spun off, with INTEL, Clearwire, and private equity firms buying it. Even then, the future of WiMAX in the U.S. is in doubt- no roaming, no 700K Hz nation wide network, AT&T and Verizon Wireless passing in favor of LTE-like technologies.

The Siemens restructuring is a most striking transformation- from an enterprise network equipment provider to a software solutions supplier. The Nortel loss is not at all a surprise, as the company has been plagued by accounting irregularities for years. The NY Times states that Nortel’s scope is too broad and is the cause of continuing concern and problems. Metro PCS is attracting subscribers, but there appears to be a cellular price war in the U.S. that has destroyed profit margins. News items are listed below in chronological order- newest news first.

SPRINT posts big loss and stops paying dividend:

Do you really think they’ll complete their WiMAX roll-out on schedule? http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sprint-posts-big-loss-stop/story.aspx?guid=%7BA733C683%2D1C44%2D4A7C%2D9BFC%2D1AA9218051F3%7D&dist=SecMKTW

Stung by defecting customers and falling sales, Sprint Nextel Corp. on Thursday posted a steep fourth-quarter loss and canceled its dividend "for the foreseeable future."

Sprint has lost tends of thousands of key customers to rivals such as AT&T Inc. and Verizon Wireless, hurt by poor customer service and lackluster selection of handsets. The company recently hired a new chief executive, Dan Hesse, to fix its ailing wireless division.

Yet Hesse said Sprint is in worse shape than he thought and that the company’s struggles won’t end anytime soon, particularly with the U.S. economy turning south.

Deutsche Telecom Narrows Net Loss

WSJ By ARCHIBALD PREUSCHAT February 29, 2008

BONN — Deutsche Telekom AG posted a narrower fourth-quarter net loss, but results were weighed down by the costs of an early-retirement program to reduce the size of the company’s work force.

Meanwhile, Chief Executive Rene Obermann said Deutsche Telekom is getting closer to a deal on a partnership for its business-services unit, T-Systems. "We have made excellent progress in negotiations on the planned partnership and expect to be able to conclude an agreement shortly," Mr. Obermann said, without elaborating.

Mr. Obermann added that Deutsche Telekom is also looking for acquisition targets outside of regions where the company is present. "Acquisitions outside of our footprint are possible," he said. Deutsche Telekom focuses on markets in the U.S., the Netherlands, and Central and Eastern Europe.

MetroPCS Q4 loss widens

MetroPCS reported its fourth quarter and year-end results: Revenue grew 30 percent to $591.1 million, up from $453.1 million last year, but short of analysts’ expected $608 million. During the fourth quarter, MetroPCS posted a loss of $47.2 million, or 14 cents per share. It also took an impairment charge of $83 million to write down the value of auction-rate securities. For more on MetroPCS’ quarter: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080227/earns_metropcs.html?.v=1

Nortel posts a loss and will cut 2,100 more jobs

One day after Siemens announced plans to cut some 3,800 workers and reassign 3,000 others (see 3. below), telecom equipment vendor Nortel said it will cut 2,100 jobs as part of its turnaround efforts. Nortel reported a $957 million loss for 2007, largely because of a huge accounting adjustment. The fourth quarter net loss was $844 million, or $1.70 a share, compared with an $80 million loss this time last year. Revenue fell 3.7 percent for the quarter to $3.2 billion, while the company had expected flat revenue with $100 million wiggle room. The job cuts constitute a 6.2 percent reduction in its global workforce, but it also plans to move some 1,000 jobs to "higher growth and lower cost geographies." Nortel plans to sell some of its real estate assets as well. The changes should help the company save $300 million a year. For more on Nortel’s troubles: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/27/technology/27cnd-nortel.html?em&ex=1204261200&en=096bee6f25a67bc8&ei=5087%0A http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/technology/28nortel.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Siemens to refocus telecom equipment unit on software solutions

Siemens AG has confirmed reports it plans to lay off about 6,800 workers globally in its enterprise communications equipment business and outsource all manufacturing activities as it transitions the division to a software and services business. The company said its wholly-owned Siemens Enterprise Communications GmBH would eliminate a total of 3,200 positions in Germany and another 3,600 globally with most of the cuts occurring in manufacturing and administrative support. http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=206900181 But there’s more……………………………………………

Siemens cuts 6,800 jobs, plans plant sales at Enterprise Telecom Division

Siemens AG, Europe’s biggest engineering company, will cut 6,800 jobs at the corporate telecommunications unit after failing to find a buyer for the division for almost two years. Siemens will eliminate about 3,800 jobs directly, and about 3,000 will be cut by selling factories or setting up partnerships, the Munich-based company said in a statement today. About 3,200 jobs are affected in Germany, according to Siemens. The company will exit manufacturing sites from Germany to Brazil.“Something had to happen as the unit just doesn’t fit into the company’s portfolio anymore,” Michael Bahlmann, an analyst at M.M. Warburg who recommends buying the stock, said in a telephone interview. “The job cuts will hopefully make it easier to sell the business.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=aUhlAk_DnWbU&refer=germany

The harsh telecommunications market has caused massive layoffs at Siemens Enterprise Communications GmbH & Co. The wholly owned subsidiary of Munich, Germany-based Siemens AG today announced a restructuring plan that calls for massive job cuts as it moves from being a hardware supplier to a software and solutions provider. SEN noted the "dramatically changing" telecommunications market for enterprise solutions. Indeed, falling prices and mounting competition from low-cost-labor countries such as China have increased the pressure on European-based telecom players. The company said that the market’s flux has made the transformation "absolutely essential" and that the shift supports Siemens’ ongoing efforts to find a suitable partner for SEN. "We will begin accelerating the reorientation of SEN and the related restructuring activities under the control of Siemens to ensure that personnel measures associated with these changes will be as socially compatible as possible," Siemens CFO Joe Kaeser said in a statement. http://facilities.broadcastnewsroom.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=318514 ———————————————————————————————————

Feb 13, 2008 Meeting Summary: Telepresence and Innovation at Cisco's Emerging Technology Group

2008-02-26T00:27:00Z

Charles Stucki, VP and GM of Cisco's TelePresence Business Unit, provided an excellent overview of Cisco's Emerging Technology Group (ETG), with an emphasis on its first product- the Telepresence video conferencing for enterprise customers (and for Cisco's internal use). Confirming our earlier supposition about telecom companies concentrating on content, Chuck stated that Cisco was looking at Application layer technologies, such as video, rather then infrastructure technologies within its ETG.

For Cisco's take on emerging technologies, please visit:

http://blogs.cisco.com/innovation/emerging_technologies/

Here are the highlights of this excellent and informative talk:

-New collaboration and business models are changing the world- technology, information and services, social structures

-The pace of innovation is accelerating with video, mobility and virtualization

-Web 2.0 features wikis, blogs and mashups (also social networking sites, collaboration and conferencing)

-The next generation Internet- Web 3.0 - will make those available anywhere, using any media and any device.

-Video currently generates more traffic then the entire US Internet in 2000 (25 peta bytes/month). Internet video, in order of bandwidth consumption:You Tube streams, Xbox 360 movie downloads, My Space streams, Yahoo Videos and iTunes videos. This doesn't even count business video conferencing or video collaboration.

-Cisco's Emerging Technology Group is a new concept- disruptive innovation resulting in new products for new markets. It's mission is to create new technologies and new growth markets for Cisco. There are many external and internal sources of innovation. Cisco's ETG is focused on internal development through a "venture framework." Cisco will also be "an integrator of other companies disruptive solutions."

-Cisco believes that emerging technologies will be more at the Application layer, rather then the Infrastructure layers. (Opinion: This is a huge shift from traditional telecom and networking layers 1-4 to content based solutions- Presentation and Application layers).

-Cisco is looking for opportunities outside of the U.S. where growth is faster.

-Cisco currently has 2 Telepresence products: CTS 3000 for large meetings and CTS 1000 for small groups or 1:1 conferencing. (See slide: Cisco Telepresence Meeting Solution-Endpoint Offerings). They also have Multipoint capability "to connect multiple locations easily and flexibly."

-Several vertical markets for Telepresence were identified: global finance, manufacturing (especially high tech), Service Provider integtration, and retail consumer product groups (e.g. Proctor and Gamble).

Other Cisco Emerging Technologies+ include:

IPICS for systems interoperability- contextually integrates multiple modalities of communications for interoperability and collaboration

Video Surveillance for physical security

Video Analytics

Digital Media Management systems including desktop video and digital signage

+ Chuck stated that 80% of Cisco's emerging technologies will be video based.

For more information visit:

http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2007/ts_100207.html

Note
: There are other emerging technologies that Chuck could not identify at this time, as they have not been made public. He did say that Cisco's focus for these technologies continues to be on the enterprise market- where they have been networking equipment leaders for many years (e.g. routers and switches).
Cisco is pursuing many different types of innovation
, including: developing new technology (Telepresence, IP Telephony, WiFi), developing new products (CRS-1, IOS XR, Integrated Services Router), partnering with other companies (Network Admission Control), Spin in investments in companies (Andiamo), pursue acquisitions (WebEx), create new business models (Linksys, Meeting Place, NetSolve).

2008 TIA Market Review and Forecast

2008-02-23T17:43:00Z

I attended TIA's annual press briefing covering their just released market review and forecast. It has been quite accurate in the past. Only problem this time is that the survey was taken this summer and fall; before the ripple effects of the mortgage meltdown and credit contraction (bursting of the huge credit and structured finance bubbles). So the results might be a bit optimistic.

Global Market View:

Global telecom market projected at $4.9T in 2011

–9.2% CAGR ($3.5T in ’07, $2.0T in ’02)

–$1.3T from U.S.; $3.6T from international

U.S. Sector

–8.3% increase in 2007 ($1.0T revenue)

–9.3% rise expected in 2008

–7.2% CAGR through 2011

International Sector

–

12.5% jump in 2007 ($2.5T revenue, with $1.2T from Europe)

–10.0% CAGR through 2011

•Europe – 7.5% CAGR; Canada – 5.4% CAGR

•Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America – double digit CAGR

Key Takeaways

Industry will continue to expand in 2008-2011 period
Healthy uptick at home and abroad
Greater global market share internationally vs. domestically
Economic downturns less of a threat than 2000-2002 experience
Demand-driven growth, rather than supply-induced
Demand for bandwidth could lead to shortage if broadband and wireless network upgrades can’t keep pace

VoIP & bundling preserve landline base

Significant surge in both areas to carry forward

VoIP expected to overtake circuit-switched residential landline connections down the road, experience substantial enterprise adoption

Equipment sales on the rebound, thanks to IP

- Broadband and wireless provide fuel for the growth engine

- Higher speeds and greater penetration for broadband

Wireless has surpassed landline internationally, will do so in US by 2009

–Subscriber growth slowing as saturation approaches
–Content and next-generation apps/services delivering strong returns, increased ARPU and the push toward unified communications

US Market Drivers:

Explosive growth in network traffic, fueled by data applications (mostly residential video)

Soaring bandwidth consumption (doubled in 2006; quadrupled

in 2007) – investments in fiber, GigE to support broadband

and wireless network upgrades

Continued adoption of IP technologies/services/VoIP

Unified communications/convergence (business driver)

Intensified fight for the customer between telcos and cable companies – voice, data, video and wireless bundling

US Market Analysis:

§Landline

Subscriber erosion moderating (secondary line loss virtually over)

–

VoIP and bundling critical to continued presence

Wireless

Advanced data applications integral to revenue, handset/equipment growth/evolution

–

Service revenue to surpass landline in 2009

Enterprise

Important shifts: converged systems, IP VPNs

–

IP services, videoconferencing, security are priorities

.-------------------------------------------------------------------

You may order the complete report from:

http://tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm

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From Telephony On-line:
http://telephonyonline.com/wireless/news/tia-market-forecast-0222/

According to the Telecommunications Industry Association’s “2008 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast” for the global telecommunications industry, there has been a healthy uptake of telecom services, both at home and abroad, with international markets seeing more growth than domestic markets. The report, released today, found that despite an economic turndown, the market is now demand-driven, not supply-induced.

For the telecom market as a whole, the study, conducted by Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, found that worldwide revenue totaled $1 trillion in 2007, up 8.3% from the previous year. The global telecom industry is expected to grow to $4.9 trillion in 2011. Out of this, the United States will mature at an average annual rate of 7.2% from 2008 to 2011, reaching $1.3 trillion in 2011. The international markets are expected to surpass this with an average growth rate of 10%, reaching $3.6 trillion by 2011.

Arthur Gruen of Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, principal author of the forecast, said that on the domestic front, key drivers of the progress were explosive growth in network traffic and data applications in the wireless and landline space. The study found that about 35% of U.S. wireless service revenue will come from data services, primarily Web surfing and video in 2011, up from 16% in 2007.

“The action is on the data side,” he said. “Entertainment is a driver. Bandwidth consumption is just booming. It doubled in 2006 and quadrupled in 2007. Early in the decade, even as recently as 2002 and 2003, the belief was we had so much access capacity we wouldn’t have to invest in it for the foreseeable future. Well, the foreseeable future lasted less than a decade.”

As such, Gruen said that the industry might be running into bandwidth shortages resulting from video and peer-to-peer data sharing as well as the huge growth in data communications and applications. TIA president Grant Sieffert said the bandwidth boom presents a significant opportunity for the organization’s 600 member companies.

On the landline side of telephony, TIA expects subscriber erosion to continue but at a reduced rate going forward. The uptake of secondary lines in the 90s is reducing as teens and younger users are relying more on wireless phones and less on second landlines. Wireless service revenues will pass landline revenue in 2009, the report found.

Despite a struggling U.S. economy, Gruen said telcos are operating in a more vibrant economic space versus the economic recession of 2001. While economic growth may slow in 2008, the TIA is not expecting a meltdown to occur – a sentiment both AT&T and Verizon echoed in their fourth-quarter 2007 earnings reports.

“We see a lot of action occurring in the wireless space,” Gruen said. “The telecom industry is by no means immune to an economic downturn. We could see a bit of a pause in 2008 reflecting a downturn in the economy, particularly by enterprises who want to hold back or delay some of their investments. Nevertheless, the enterprises are focused on converting to IP, and a lot of the plans are already in place. We don’t expect them to delay that.”

“Services are amongst the last consumables affected by a slowdown, so we believe this growth will continue,” Sieffert added.

The Internet in Your Pocket: Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) & WiMAX- Intel's view

2008-01-27T01:58:00Z

Abstract:

The IEEE ComSoc SCV chapter was privileged to have Rama Shukla of Intel speak at our January 16, 2008 meeting. Rama shared with us Intel’s initiative’s to create a new market for MIDs With built in WiFi and WiMAX capability, MIDs would offer the user a much better mobile broadband experience then is possible today with smart cell phones.

Meeting Summary

http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/Summary_011608_MIDWiMAX.pdf

References

For more information, please refer to the pdf of Rama’s presentation, available on ComSoc SCV web site: http://www.ewh.ieee.org/r6/scv/comsoc/index.php

Is WiMAX Market success dependent on new Consumer Electronic (CE) devices? Alan J Weissberger writing in Viodi View: http://www.viodi.tv/2007/04/24/wimax-2/

Will the Real Mobile WiMAX Please Stand Up! Alan J Weissberger writing in Viodi View:

http://www.viodi.com/newsletter/061000/article2.pdf